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For Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump’s potential return to power in the U.S. couldn’t come soon enough. Reports suggest that Putin might accept a deal where Russia gets a big chunk of Ukrainian land—an area about the size of Virginia in the U.S.—if Ukraine agrees to stay neutral and give up on joining NATO or the EU.

Both Ukraine and Russia are feeling the toll of the ongoing war. While Russia is making slow progress in the Donetsk region, recruiting soldiers has become a major headache for the Kremlin. In fact, the news that North Korean troops are fighting in Ukraine highlights just how desperate things have gotten for Russia.

Despite stepping up its attacks—including reportedly firing its first intercontinental ballistic missile during the war—it’s clear that Russia, like Ukraine, might benefit from a peace deal. But here’s the twist: while Moscow tries to show strength, it’s struggling behind the scenes.

Russia’s Heavy Losses and Recruitment Woes

The numbers tell a grim story. Western estimates suggest that between 115,000 to 160,000 Russian troops have died since the war began, nearly wiping out 90% of the initial force. Another 500,000 have been injured. To make up for this, Russia is scrambling to recruit 20,000 new soldiers every month.

But getting people to join the army in Russia isn’t easy, even in peacetime. The military has long been notorious for its brutal hazing and bullying of new recruits—an old tradition called dedovshchina. These stories have made young men wary of military service for decades.

Things only got worse after the fall of the Soviet Union, when Russian media exposed the horrible conditions soldiers endured, from malnutrition to poor medical care. Many still remember the grim tales of underprepared conscripts sent to fight in Chechnya during the 1990s. It’s no wonder most Russians try to avoid the draft at all costs.

Who’s Being Drafted?

The military often targets poorer regions for conscripts, like Bashkortostan, Chechnya, and Dagestan—areas far from Moscow. But recently, even young men in the capital have been feeling the heat. Hundreds of thousands of Russians have fled the country to dodge the draft, prompting the government to introduce stricter laws.

Since November 1, draft notices in Russia are now delivered online. The moment a man gets one in his digital mailbox, he’s banned from leaving the country. Even everyday interactions with the government—like paying taxes or renewing a driver’s license—can lead to an instant draft notice. It’s becoming harder for anyone to avoid getting called up.

In response, some men have resorted to extreme measures. They’ve faked illnesses, forged medical documents, or even injured themselves to escape the draft. Others have tried moving to remote locations or buying property in someone else’s name, but these tactics are getting less effective. The government has even started drafting Russians living abroad.

Scraping the Bottom of the Barrel

Desperate for soldiers, Russia has also turned to prisoners, including convicted murderers and other criminals. This has caused the prison population to drop dramatically. To sweeten the deal for recruits, the government has doubled enlistment bonuses and raised soldiers’ pay, making it more appealing than many civilian jobs.

Russia has also leaned on North Korea for reinforcements, but this comes with its own challenges. North Korean troops lack combat experience, speak little to no Russian, and use different tactics, making coordination difficult. Some Russian soldiers have admitted they don’t know what to do with them.

Another potential ally, Belarus, might be pressured into sending troops, as Belarusian soldiers are more familiar with Russian strategies. However, this would likely stir backlash in Belarus, making it a risky move.

A Sign of Struggle

In a startling escalation, Putin recently hinted at the possibility of using nuclear weapons. This came after Ukraine used U.S.-supplied missiles to strike the Bryansk region in western Russia. Normally, such threats are only made when conventional tactics are failing—another sign that Russia isn’t as strong as it wants to appear.

Ukraine Isn’t Out of the Woods

Of course, it’s not smooth sailing for Ukraine either. The war has drained its resources and strained its recruitment efforts. The country has also lost territory, making its position on the battlefield increasingly difficult.

But here’s the kicker: despite the challenges on both sides, Putin may be coming to the negotiation table from a weaker position than he’d like to admit. Yet, a peace deal favorable to Moscow might still be within reach, ignoring the cracks in Russia’s war machine.

This war has taken a heavy toll on everyone involved, and the road ahead is anything but clear. For now, the world watches, hoping for a resolution that spares more suffering.